Economic Report December 2009 – still not a normal recovery in sight
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As the Federal Association of German Banks, the BdB said today that the economic recovery going on in our country has continued, but in all likelihood, next year is expected to slow again. This is justified mainly on the slow end of the economic-strengthening measures of the federal government, but also with the so-called catch-up effects, that is, for example a rise in unemployment.
“Bank Association: Recovery continues, but in 2010 it again loses momentum
“The economic recovery in Germany is further supported by special factors. From a ‘normal’ recovery can not talk, “said Prof. Dr. Manfred Weber, managing director of the Bankers Association, in presenting the economic report for the month of December. The current momentum will probably decrease again next year, when the pent-up demand and relieve the economic stimulus. Then, the extremely low capacity utilization and appliances expected to continue rising unemployment to the fore. Economic growth rates in the third quarter of this year when the gross domestic product rose 0.7% seasonally adjusted from the previous quarter, would mark the foreseeable future, the upper edge of the development. On average for 2010 was in Germany with an economic growth of just over 1 ½% is expected.
From the fiscal policy would go further in the next year, initially supporting economic stimulus, so Weber. He warns against ignoring when considering the positive economic effects, the potentially opposing effect of the rapidly increasing national debt: “The current budget deficit next year will be 5 to 6% of gross domestic product. We need a clear concept of fiscal policy, showing how these deficits are reduced, when the economy has stabilized reliably, “said Weber. The coalition agreement, send this is the correct and necessary signals. “The withdrawal of funding for future issues is a major policy messages of the federal government,” he said.
Given the continued favorable outlook for prices for Weber sees the European Central Bank rate hike no acute pressure. The extensive liquidity support from the European Central Bank for the banking system could be first “collected” without monetary tightening again. This was relevant and helped keep the longer-term inflation expectations low. To limit the risk of strong exchange rate fluctuations, Weber maintains close international coordination of monetary policies among the central banks retreat would be useful. “
